The beef sector is experiencing significant changes that present opportunities and challenges. A recent analysis of the latest export and import data and market forecasts available on industry websites offers valuable insights into the sector’s future direction in the coming years.

Global production and export trends

According to forecasts from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), global beef production is expected to experience a slight decline in 2024, reaching 59.1 million tonnes. Declines in production are anticipated in the United States (-6%), Argentina (-3%), and Canada (-5%). In contrast, increases are expected in Brazil (+2%), China (+4%), and India (+2%). The European Commission estimates that beef production in the European Union will be 6.4 million tonnes, representing a 0.5% decrease from the previous year (ec.europa.eu).

Global beef exports are expected to reach 12.1 million tonnes in 2024, an increase of 1% compared to previous forecasts (usda.gov). In the European Union, beef exports could rise by 10%, while imports are expected to decline by 3% to 350,000 tonnes (ec.europa.eu).

According to the US Meat Export Federation (USMEF), international beef sales in 2024 generated €2.31 billion, marking an increase of €122 million, or 5.6%, compared to the first quarter of 2023. This growth is noteworthy, considering that export volumes, including processed products, decreased by 4.5%, totalling 311,800 tonnes. Additionally, sales to the European Union fell by more than 20%, dropping to just 3,760 tonnes (topagrar.pl).

    Poland compared to the world

In Poland, the volume of live cattle exports during the first five months of 2024 decreased by 25% compared to the same period in 2023, totalling 4.6 thousand tonnes (ing.pl).

As of July 2024, the purchase price of cattle in Poland reached PLN 10.39 per kilogram, marking a 7.6% increase year-on-year. Experts predict that by the end of 2025, the purchase price of cattle in Poland will rise to PLN 10.60 per kilogram. The high prices for cattle purchases in the upcoming quarters are expected to be primarily driven by fluctuations in demand alongside a systematic decrease in supply (agroprofil.pl).

In 2024, the bluetongue virus (BTV) was detected in Poland, leading to severe consequences for the agricultural sector. Several countries, including China, Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, imposed import bans on Polish cattle and animal products in response to the outbreak. These restrictions have resulted in the loss of significant market opportunities, and Russia has also stopped the transit of Polish cattle through its territory (wiescirolnicze.pl; topagrar.pl). As a result, there could be an oversupply of cattle in the domestic market, which may cause prices to decline. However, implementing BTV vaccination programs and ongoing trade negotiations could help restore exports and confidence in international markets (wiescirolnicze.pl).

According to analysts from the Union of Producers and Employers of the Meat Industry (UPEMI) and Bank Pekao S.A., the Polish meat industry remains strong, ranking in the top ten globally and valued at over €100 billion (bankier.pl).

Asian markets

European Union beef exports to Japan significantly increased in 2024, thanks to the EU-Japan Economic Partnership Agreement, which has been in effect since February 2019. This agreement has simplified trade procedures and reduced tariffs, making European beef more competitive in the Japanese market. Poland, one of the key exporters, has experienced a notable rise in frozen beef exports to Japan (agropolska.pl).

Another important market for European beef is Hong Kong. Rising incomes and increasing consumer awareness lead the market to prioritise high-quality products. As a result, local retail chains are increasingly collaborating with European beef suppliers that meet rigorous standards (beeffrompoland.pl).

Innovation and new technologies

In 2024, the cattle sector focused on implementing technologies to enhance production efficiency and improve animal welfare. Automating processes, such as milking and feeding, have become a key trend in developed countries. Milking robots and precision feeding systems have gained popularity in Brazil, Australia, and the European Union, leading to increased productivity and reduced animal stress. Additionally, health monitoring systems, like transponders and pedometers, have enabled farmers to detect diseases early, resulting in fewer losses and decreased reliance on medications (globalagritrends.com, eurotier.com).

A significant global challenge addressed through innovation is sustainability in cattle farming. New technologies like methane emission analysis systems are being implemented in Canada and New Zealand to reduce the sector’s carbon footprint. Simultaneously, alternative animal treatments, including laser and ultrasound therapies, are becoming more common in European countries, lowering the need for antibiotics. Growing consumer awareness of ecological issues encourages breeders to invest in certified production technologies (mla.com.au, europeanlivestock.org).

Events that promote innovative solutions are becoming increasingly important in international markets. EuroTier 2024 in Hanover gathered exhibitors worldwide, showcasing advanced farming systems. Innovations from Japan and South Korea focused on enhancing the quality of premium products and attracted specific attention. Global trends indicate that investing in monitoring technologies, automation, and environmentally friendly solutions will become the standard in the next decade (eurotier.com, argifoodtechreview.com).

Projections for 2025.

USDA projections indicate that global beef production is expected to decline by approximately 1% in 2025, reaching 60.9 million tonnes. The most significant reductions are anticipated in Brazil, the European Union (EU), and the United States. In the US, beef production could decrease by around 4% due to reduced cattle numbers. Similarly, Brazil is projected to see a decline of about 1%, marking the second consecutive year of decreased cattle numbers.  The EU is also expected to experience a reduction of around 1% as ongoing economic difficulties and regulatory uncertainties continue to dissuade investment in the livestock sector. Conversely, countries such as Argentina, Australia, India, and Mexico are forecasted to experience production increases (agronomist.pl).

Analysts at Bank Crédit Agricole attribute the ongoing increase in EU cattle purchase prices to a surge in beef export demand and a simultaneous decrease in available supply. Despite reaching record levels of profitability, production is declining. This drop is mainly due to structural changes within the cattle sector, including a reduced interest in breeding stemming from high regulatory uncertainty and challenges related to farm succession. As a result, cattle procurement prices are expected to stay high in the upcoming quarters, with volatility primarily driven by fluctuations in demand against a backdrop of systematic supply reductions (credit-agricole.pl).